The Influenza-like Evolutionary Path of Respiratory RNA Viruses

The preprint operates predominantly within the established epidemiological paradigm of infectious disease modeling, exemplified by the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model. However, it introduces modifications that challenge certain assumptions of this paradigm, suggesting a state of Model Drift.

This preprint introduces the SIRS-G model, an extension of the SIRS model incorporating an "immunity gap" G(t) to account for waning immunity and antigenic drift in RNA respiratory viruses. This represents a modification of the existing SIRS framework, not a complete paradigm shift. The G(t) variable allows the model to explain recurrent outbreaks even with low-virulence strains, thereby addressing a key limitation of traditional models. While the core assumptions of compartmental modeling are retained, the addition of G(t) and its influence on transmission dynamics pushes beyond the standard SIRS framework, suggesting a Model Drift. While some elements point toward Normal Science (working within an established paradigm), the explicit effort to address the shortcomings of existing models and the introduction of a novel governing variable justify classifying the work as Model Drift. The preprint could also be considered within the realm of Normal Science as it still operates within the broader paradigm of compartmental epidemiological modeling, but the modifications are substantial enough to represent a drift from the standard model. The preprint does not propose a Model Crisis or Model Revolution as it does not fundamentally challenge the underlying principles of epidemiological modeling but rather refines an existing model to better capture empirical observations of viral dynamics.