Anticipating Pest Expansion Under Climate Change: Ecological Risks of Scyphophorus acupunctatus to Agave Species in Mexico

This research operates firmly within the established paradigms of conservation biology and climate change ecology. It utilizes ecological niche modeling (ENM) as a standard tool to predict species distributions under future climate scenarios, a widely accepted methodology in the field. The study is framed by the prevailing understanding that climate change alters species ranges and interactions, posing risks to biodiversity and agriculture. It applies these accepted models and theories to a specific, economically important system—agave plants and their pest, the agave weevil—to generate predictive insights for management.

The paper exemplifies Normal Science by engaging in "puzzle-solving" within the current scientific framework. It does not propose a new theory or challenge the foundations of ecological niche modeling or climate impact science. Instead, it meticulously applies established methods (Maxent, WorldClim data, CMIP6 scenarios) to a specific, under-researched case. The findings, which predict an expansion of the pest's range and increased overlap with host species, serve to articulate and extend the existing paradigm by filling a knowledge gap. This work reinforces the paradigm's predictive power and provides practical data for conservation and agricultural planning.